Tulsa City Council - a Model of Voter Predictability

A few months ago, Steven Roemerman shared some city council data with a group of fellow bloggers. I took the liberty of putting that data into a time line. It's at the very bottom of the blog post. What it shows is not really surprising, but in a graphical sense it helps to show how extremely predictable voters in each district vote. The natural laws of political science, do not cease to exist in council districts in Tulsa; nay, they are pretty much a model of uniformity and predictability. Datawise, nothing radical - which is consistent with the normal political science of typical cities.

Since 1990, there have been roughly ten City Council terms (1990-2010). The districts pretty much follow a narrow party pattern. There's no complex system, only three general trends:

1. All Democrat;
2. All Republican;
3. First one way, then all the other way, or vice versa (sometimes alternating).

Districts have had little competition - which is a common feature of local governments with city councils. Three of the districts haven't changed much. There are two councilors each holding 80% or 90% of all terms. There was some competiton this year, when the firefighters union appeared to attempt to protect their narrow interests. It looks like it worked in one district, and it didn't in another.

These patterns are consistent with the political science studies of cities that I have read. Some people don't like predictability or uniformity when it conflicts with their radical views for governance, but predictability or uniformity is the way most people like it - in Tulsa, and across the nation. I know the radical stuff makes things interesting, but the majority of people just don't care for it. They prefer to work within an existing system.

Here is the break down

District 1		Notes
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	3	5 terms for Joe Williams	2 councilors hold 80%
Party Affiliation	All Democrats	3 terms for Henderson	Of 10 terms
District 2
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	4	5 terms for Darla Hall, 2 each for other 3 Councilors	Darla Hall 50%
Party Affiliation	1 Democrat, 3 Republicans	No Democrat since 2000; Democrat 1990-2000
District 3
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	5	5 Terms held by David Patrick	2 councilors hold 90%
Party Affiliation	All Democrats	4 Terms held by Roscoe Turner	Of 10 terms
District 4
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	5	4 Terms held by Gary Watts	40% of 10 Terms
Party Affiliation	1 Republican – 4 Democrats		Held by Patrick
District 5
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	4	5 terms held by Sam Roop	50% of 10 terms
Party Affiliation	All Republican	3 terms each held by Martinson and Nelson	Held by Roop
District 6
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	4	Justis 5 terms; Hogue 3 terms one as a Republican	Justice 50%
Party Affiliation	1 Democrat, 3 Republicans		Hogue 30%
District 7
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	5	Benjamin 3 terms all others 2 each except for
Party Affiliation	All Republican	Clay Bird
District 8
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	4	4 Terms held by Cleveland,	2 councilors hold 80%
Party Affiliation	1 Democrat, 3 Republicans	4 terms held by Christiansen	Of 10 terms
District 9
Number of Unique Councilors Since 1990	6	2 terms each, but for Cason Carter
Party Affiliation	All Republican

Here's the timeline. Blue is Democrat and Red is Republican, district one is at the top and district nine is at the bottom:

Click to see large